Examining Past College Football Playoffs With The Hour Glass

Photo courtesy of 247sports.com

We continue to examine teams, coaching, recruiting and projections in the 2017 College Football Hour Glass and as a reminder; you can see the 2017 Projections for the College Football Playoff here.

In any projections, you never have 100 percent reliability on your analytics and there are just certain things you cannot project. You cannot project a South Alabama over Mississippi State, Jacksonville State over Ole Miss or Appalachian State over Michigan. There are always outliers in sports that rear their ugly head.

So in the spirit of projecting, I was challenged by some colleagues at 1059 to go back and see how my system would have panned out over the last three years or since the College Football Playoff started.

So – that’s what we did and here are the results.

2016 Projections:

After running the numbers for 2016 projections here is how the top teams panned out in our rankings and when you start comparing team versus team.

2016 Hour Glass Projections
Rank Team HG Stamp
1 Clemson 159.2
2 Ohio State 152
3 Alabama 136
4 Washington 84.1
5 Oklahoma 134.7 Projected loss to Ohio State – eliminated

 

The actual Final Four as we know ended like this.

Actual College Football Playoff Final Four
Rank   Team
1 Alabama
2   Clemson Winner
3 Ohio State
4 Washington

 

Our model showed Oklahoma losing to Ohio State, which they did and being on the outside looking in because of a Washington team winning the PAC 10. What our model didn’t show is Ohio State losing to Penn State by three and all the drama that surrounded the Big 10 a year ago.

We did however have Clemson winning the entire thing on projections and of course that could have swung Alabama’s way on the final play.

2015 Projections:

2015 was a crazy year for the College Football Playoff and dang near everyone missed on the winner, including our analytics.

Ohio State was the clear number one favorite going into the season and our numbers showed that as well.

Continue reading here.