The Drive’s College Football Hour Glass – 2017 Projections

The 2017 college football season will be here before you know it and on the Drive on ESPN Radio 105.9 in Jackson, MS, like many places we cover college football 365 days a year.

Every year multiple outlets and personalities project and predict how the college football season will unfold and everyone has their own system or formula for doing so.

This year we are proud to roll out our inaugural College Football Hour Glass, where we will tell you how we think the 2017 season will play out, focusing on the Power Five and some other teams like Notre Dame, Boise State, Southern Mississippi and others.

In the “Hour Glass” we will present to you a Preseason Power Top 25 and ranking of all the teams we analyze as well as individual conference projections, a Post Season Top 25, a College Football Playoff Final Four and ultimately a winner.

Within “The Glass” we will also provide you with coaching rankings, recruiting rankings, strength of schedule and more, all derived from our analytics.

The Glass takes all the emotion out of the picks and analysis letting the numbers for every team drive what happens and the results.

We will roll out several articles over the coming days and weeks that preview the SEC, ACC, BIG 10, BIG 12, PAC 12, Notre Dame and others. We will also go indepth in articles and features on quarterbacks, coaching, recruiting and more.

Can Clemson make a third straight National Championship appearance? Photo courtesy of 247sports.com

As a test we went back and ran last years numbers for what would be prior to the 2016 season and our analytics would have predicted Clemson a +9 over Alabama for the National Championship. Yes that game came down to one or two plays, and could have gone either way, but had we done this last year, that is who and what the numbers would have drove us to.

About the Analytics:

In the Hour Glass I use three variables to calculate a composite number for each team and I will explain that here.

First let me say thanks to guys like Dave Bartoo, Samuel Chi, Dr. Ed Feng, Bill Connelly, Mike Huguenin and others that I have the utmost respect for as college football “money ball” guys – guys that study numbers and have their own way of looking at things. These guys have inspired me as a numbers and math guy myself to seek out my own avenue for predicting games and seeing how it goes.

In my batch of crazy numbers I have used three variables to come up with base numbers for teams.


1 – The Hour Glass Coaching Stamp:

A coaches rating platform which rates every head coach based on performance at their current job and that coach is given a number based on an algorithm. If a coach changes jobs, or is a coach promoted to head coaching duties, that number would be basically zero due to no data at his new position.

The net average coaching stamp we have established for 2017 is the value of FIVE (5). If your coach is listed above the line, he is considered above average and those that live in the highest are considered elite.

Below the line, are either coaches who have only been at their current job for two years or less OR have underperformed at their current job.

Top Five Coaches for 2017 with their coaching Stamp:

NOTE: We will reveal all coaching ratings in the coming days.

1 Alabama   52
2 Clemson   33
3 Ohio State   33
4 Florida State   31
5 Oklahoma   26

 

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